Scenario PLanning

What to do when...all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future

synopsis
workshop benefits
typical outcomes of scenario planning
steps of scenario planning
availability

Synopsis

All organizations face uncertainty. The traditional way of doing that has been to try to eliminate uncertainty by using research and analysis to define corporate strategies and then doggedly pursuing these strategies, regardless of changing environment and  circumstances.

That is what many companies have been doing in the past, and many are still doing today. And although we can be sure that none of them were planning their own demise, two-thirds of the Fortune 500 companies of 30 years ago have disappeared off today's list. The main underlying reasons were either lack of planning, or planning that assumed only one possible future.

But change has become too rapid and unpredictable. Uncertainty in the future can neither be ignored nor eliminated by most planning. Instead, we have to embrace the uncertainty, and find a way to identify and prepare for the various possible futures, the various future scenarios. 

How to see what others cannot see...

Scenario planning starts from precisely this premise. It provides the tools to face up to and address the multiple possibilities that an uncertain future holds. Scenario thinking helps us to see  what we can and cannot change, enables us to look for the signs of change that will  profoundly affect how we work, and forces us to look at the implications of a range of realistic futures.

Applied together with a holistic strategic planning regime, scenario thinking becomes scenario-based strategic planning. This allows organizations to be ready with the right strategies and action plans, that can be activated as changes and scenarios unfold, while the competition is only starting to grapple with the issues brought about by the changed scenarios.

Workshop Benefits

Participants will acquire the competency to assist the organization in scenario-based strategic planning that will enhance the organization’s preparedness for an uncertain future, by learning how to:

1. Use the 7 steps of scenario thinking to determine possible scenarios, both in daily work life and as part of the strategic planning process
2. Cultivate methods to recognize seemingly insignificant things that could become essential to future success
3. Apply multi-track thinking
4. Develop action plans for each possible scenario
5. Use scenario thinking with future external-environment scanning to develop possible strategic scenarios
6. Use scenario thinking at appropriate points in the strategic planning process, to  develop scenario-based strategic plans
7. Decide the scope and depth of contingent strategy development that should  sensibly be done for each strategic scenario

Typical Outcomes of Scenario Planning - in detail 

1. Confirms that the overall strategy of the organization is sound, or that new, underpinning strengths need to be added to create more robustness
2. Confirms that lower-level business choices are sound, or that new, alternative options are more robust 
3. Recognizes that none of the business options are robust and, therefore, contingency planning against unfavorable futures is necessary
4. Sensitivity to the ‘early warning’ elements that are precursors of desirable and unfavorable futures (Adapted from various works by Van Der Heijden, Kees)

Steps of Scenario Planning 

There are many models and many copies of models. We prefer the original model as developed by the Royal Dutch Shell and SRI International. This model is called the “intuitive logics” approach to scenario planning. It was developed in the 1970s and has six steps.  The model is called “intuitive” because it allows for hunches, “gut feelings,” assessment of uncertainty, and possible outcomes of the most knowledgeable people – the management team. 

If this idea of being “intuitive” makes you question the model’s rigor, rest assured that the model is also logical, formal, and disciplined in its use of information, analysis and the structured approach to the task. 

Here are the steps of the original model:

1. Obtain management team’s agreement on which strategic decision (the issues surrounding it) should provide the focus for the scenarios
2. Specify the key decision factors (What are the crucial particulars, we would like to know about the future in order to make our decision?) 
3. Identify and analyze the key environmental forces (using an impact/uncertainty matrix which will allow you to sort environmental factors and focus on those that matter as shown in step 4.)
4. Establish the Scenario “Logics” by hopefully focusing on: (This is the stage in the scenario planning where intuition, insight, and creativity play the greatest role.)
   • High impact/low-uncertainty forces (those in the top left-hand cell). These are the relative certainties in your future for which your current planning MUST prepare.
   • High impact/high-uncertainty factors (those in the upper right quadrant). These are the potential shapes of different futures (scenarios) for which your longer-term planning SHOULD prepare. 
5. Select and elaborate the scenarios using five criteria
6. Interpret the scenarios for their decision implications by asking: “What are the strategic implications of the scenarios for the particular decision we selected at the outset of this process? What options do the scenarios suggest to us? Step 6, enables decision makers to turn scenarios into strategy. This final step in the 6 step process can develop some initial and valuable strategic insights. The needs of each organization for strategic insights will differ somewhat.
7. Get the management team to hear, digest, confirm, and act on the scenarios (Adapted from various works by Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall)
   

Available on site 

1/2 Day Executive Brief
1-Day Executive/Management
2-Day Management/Individual Contributor Outfitting
plus 1-Day Navigating The Obstacle Course Coaching©

Includes

• Detailed surveying and optional interviewing of participants for course tailoring
• Additional program on handling conflict and convincing strategies 
• Substantial morning, daytime, noon, and evening individual Navigating The Obstacle Course Coaching©
• Free digital CD: All PowerPoint slides plus full audio transcript from prior seminars, or if in-house, your own seminar will be recorded
• Detailed seminar workbook
• Follow-on WEBinars to integrate performance on the job